Swiss analyst claims UAE-led shipping bypass has neutralized Iran's Strait of Hormuz control

Swiss energy analyst Alexander Stahel asserts that the Iranian regime has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, citing a new logistical system that moves oil around the chokepoint. Stahel, writing in his Monday morning investment letter The Commodity Compass, describes a "Hormuz shuttle" that has scaled up to move massive quantities of crude from the Arabian and Persian Gulf to global markets.

The system reportedly relies on a shipping channel along the Omani coast, patrolled and protected by the United States military. Stahel notes that while Central Command is not using the destroyer-heavy escort tactics of previous decades, current methods have proven effective. He points to the September decline in oil prices as evidence of this effectiveness, anticipating a similar drop in October.

According to Stahel, the initiative began with the United Arab Emirates refusing to be held hostage by Tehran. In May, the UAE deployed eleven hulls, mostly very large crude carriers owned, leased, or operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. These vessels shuttle crude via the Oman Lane into the Gulf of Oman for ship-to-ship transfer before re-entering the Persian Gulf. Stahel states that Saudi Arabia's Aramco and Kuwait have since adopted this model, resulting in approximately 116 hulls currently active in the trade. He adds that Qatar and Iraq are now utilizing the system as well.

"Iran has failed to shut the Strait," Stahel concludes, arguing that time is working against Tehran as the shuttle system expands. At the time of his writing, West Texas crude stood at $94.50 a barrel, while Brent crude traded just under $107.00. Stahel attributes these elevated prices to market concerns following President Trump's rejection of Iranian overtures to reopen talks. He predicts prices will fall as traders recognize that Iran is unable to stop or deter participants in the shuttle.

The analyst claims that every country dependent on the Strait has restored its oil export-driven cash flow to roughly 80-90% of January levels, with Iran as the sole exception. He argues that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maneuvered itself into a corner from which it cannot escape without President Trump's approval. Stahel suggests that Trump is unlikely to relinquish his leverage unless Tehran offers genuine concessions, such as opening devastated nuclear sites and tunnels at Pickaxe Mountain to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Stahel frames this situation as part of a broader effort to remove what he terms the "mullah tax" from global energy costs, a burden he says has existed since 1979. He references spring military operations "Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion" as having weakened the regime, leading to an American naval blockade and sanctions escalation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Stahel contends that Iran's leadership anticipated domestic pressure from upcoming midterm elections would force Trump to negotiate, but Trump has refused to yield despite polls showing a growing Democratic advantage in November. The analyst asserts that history will remember the potential collapse of the Islamic Revolution if Trump's strategy succeeds.