SpaceX stock eyes $220 as the capex cycle tests a volatile IPO recovery
The commercial space sector is repricing around infrastructure math, and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) sits at the center of that calculation. After hitting an all-time intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, the…
Key takeaways
- SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) hit an all-time intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 before falling to $104.83 and recovering to near its $135 IPO price.
- Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA up 191% to $3.5 billion.
- The AI unit grew revenue nearly 247% to $2.6 billion but posted a $1.3 billion operating loss and drew $15.8 billion in capital expenditures.
- Total quarterly capex of $18.4 billion was more than twice the period's revenue, reflecting a bet on Starship and AI infrastructure scaling.
- The $220 price target implies about 50.5% upside from the Aug. 12 close and depends on 2028 forecasts and a stable valuation multiple holding.
The commercial space sector is repricing around infrastructure math, and Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) sits at the center of that calculation. After hitting an all-time intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, the stock fell to a low of $104.83 before recovering to near its $135 IPO price. It still trades below the $150 level at which it opened its first day of public trading.
Second-quarter results gave the recovery a foundation. Revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.5 billion. The connectivity segment, which houses the Starlink satellite internet business, contributed $4.3 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income. Subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million.
The spending side of the ledger
Those figures are what the sector cycle can read clearly. The AI unit is harder to price. Revenue there rose nearly 247% year over year to $2.6 billion, but the segment posted a $1.3 billion operating loss and drew $15.8 billion in capital expenditures. Total capex for the quarter reached $18.4 billion, more than twice revenue for the same period. Spending that far ahead of the operating lines is a bet on Starship and AI infrastructure returning at scale. So far the income statement has not confirmed the return.
The $220 target rests on a chain of projections. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect SpaceX to generate roughly $160 billion in revenue and $110 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2028. Analysts broadly now expect 2027 revenue of around $102 billion, raised from roughly $72 billion at the end of July 2026. Applying SpaceX's Aug. 12 multiple of approximately 18.9 times expected 2027 sales to the 2028 revenue projection implies a market capitalization of about $3 trillion. Divided by an assumed 13.7 billion shares outstanding at the end of June 2027, that yields approximately $220 per share, or about 50.5% upside from the Aug. 12 close.
The share count carries its own uncertainty. SpaceX's pending $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, parent of Cursor AI, could add close to 410 million shares at Aug. 12 pricing, with final issuance depending on where the stock trades when the deal closes.
On balance, if SpaceX's 2028 results approach Goldman and Morgan Stanley's forecasts and the current valuation multiple holds, the path to $220 is arithmetically coherent. The capex cycle gets to vote on both conditions before then.
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