Harvard poll finds young voters oppose Trump and expect lower living standards

Nearly two in three U.S. adults under 30 who intend to vote in the upcoming congressional midterms say opposing President Trump and his policies is their primary motivation, according to the newly released Harvard Youth Poll. The data reveals a sharp decline in optimism among young Americans, with fear of the future outweighing hope by more than two to one.

The poll, conducted by the Harvard Public Opinion Project with Ipsos' KnowledgePanel, surveyed 2,024 adults between the ages of 18 and 29 from September 30 to October 7, 2026. A significant 77% of respondents disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, a sentiment that extends to about half of young Republicans. Only 9% believe the United States is headed in the right direction, marking the lowest level recorded in the survey's history.

Economic concerns dominate the political landscape for this demographic. Rising prices and the cost of living top the list of serious threats to long-term financial security, cited by 79% of respondents. This is followed by the power of large corporations and trade wars, each mentioned by 68%. Nearly half of those polled stated their households are struggling to make ends meet or are getting by with limited financial security. These economic anxieties drive support for progressive policies, with majorities backing Medicare for All, a wealth tax, and bans on congressional stock trading.

Voter turnout expectations have also shifted significantly. Just one in three Americans aged 18 to 29 says they will definitely vote, a substantial drop from the 40% who expressed certainty in 2022. This decline is driven primarily by Republicans, with only 34% of young Republican respondents saying they will definitely vote, down from 46%. In contrast, 50% of young Democrats say they will definitely vote, a figure essentially unchanged from previous measurements. Among independents, certainty has fallen to 22% from 26%.

The most striking finding involves intergenerational wealth expectations. For the first time in the poll's history, the share of young adults expecting to be worse off than their parents (27%) slightly exceeded those expecting to be better off (25%). Although this difference falls within the poll's margin of error, it marks a reversal from previous trends. In fall 2021, 39% expected to be better off while only 17% expected to be worse off. When Harvard first asked this question of college students in 2003, 74% believed they would be better off than their parents; in this recent poll, only 28% held that belief.

John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics, told reporters on Wednesday that young people entering adulthood need to see a clear route from effort to stability. He noted that the central issue is whether that traditional promise remains valid.

The margin of sampling error is +/-2.61% for results based on the entire sample of adults, +/-3.19% for registered voters, and +/-4.30% for those who plan to definitely or are likely to vote.