U.S. launches third Hormuz strike this week after IRGC closes strait

Military pressure at the Strait of Hormuz entered a new phase on Saturday, as U.S. Central Command launched its third round of strikes on Iranian targets near the waterway in the space of a week. The operation followed an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile attack that left a Cyprus-flagged container ship unable to continue its journey, with a civilian crew member missing and Iran's guard corps declaring the strait formally "closed until further notice."

Strike scope and stated aim

CENTCOM said the operation began at 7:15 p.m. ET. Strikes targeted Iranian air and surface-surveillance radars, missile and drone storage facilities, missile and drone launch sites, and surface-to-air missile launchers, according to a U.S. official. CENTCOM framed the campaign as imposing a heavy cost to degrade Iran's capacity to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the waterway. The IRGC offered a competing account: it said it had warned several ships away from what it called an unauthorized route, fired a "warning shot" when the cargo ship failed to change course, and struck only after that warning was ignored.

The memorandum of understanding at risk

Against the backdrop of a month-old diplomatic agreement, the exchange places in jeopardy a memorandum of understanding reached between Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration issued a demand on Friday that Iran publicly guarantee safe passage through the strait as a condition for halting the cycle of attacks. The IRGC responded by striking the commercial vessel and issuing the closure declaration. CENTCOM noted Iran had been given "yet another opportunity" to comply with the MOU following earlier attacks on commercial vessels and had again failed to do so.

Diplomacy reaches a wall in Muscat

Regional diplomats convened in Muscat on Saturday to find a way back. Oman put forward a proposal to reopen both shipping lanes through the strait, including the southern route through Omani territorial waters, without any requirement for prior approval from vessels seeking passage. That arrangement would restore the rules that were in place before the current conflict. Iran's delegation could not obtain internal authorization for the proposal in Muscat and carried it back to Tehran for further review. The Cyprus-flagged container ship struck by the IRGC was transiting precisely that southern route, the one Oman had proposed reopening without restrictions.