Trump Supporters Absorb Gas-Price Shock, Blame Iran Conflict and Biden Era — Not the President
Gas prices that rose from a national average of $2.98 per gallon before the Iran conflict to a peak of $4.56 per gallon in late May — before retreating to $3.87 by the end of June — are registering sharply with American…
HONG KONG— June 30, 2026
Gas prices that rose from a national average of $2.98 per gallon before the Iran conflict to a peak of $4.56 per gallon in late May — before retreating to $3.87 by the end of June — are registering sharply with American consumers, but voters attending President Donald Trump's rally on the National Mall this week largely declined to hold the president responsible. With Washington and Tehran scheduled to hold talks in Doha, Qatar on June 30, Trump's political coalition is wagering that a diplomatic resolution will ease pressure at the pump before November's midterm elections.
Iran and Biden Take the Blame
At the "Great American State Fair" rally celebrating the nation's 250th anniversary, attendees drew a consistent line between the Iran-driven price spike and the affordability stresses they attribute to the previous administration. Billy of North Carolina pointed to Biden-era gas prices as his benchmark for failed economic management. James McNair of Maryland argued that interest rates, which he said climbed to their highest level in 48 years under the prior administration, remain the deeper structural driver of cost-of-living strain — and that unwinding that pressure simply takes time. His brother David expressed confidence that Trump's business background would eventually deliver results.
The Pentagon has estimated the Iran conflict cost $11.3 billion in its first six days, according to a report from a closed-door congressional hearing — a figure that illustrates how rapidly geopolitical escalation feeds through to fiscal and consumer-price pressure. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has publicly argued that the US-Iran conflict will not derail the broader economy even as gas prices surge, a view that appeared to resonate with several rally attendees who described the spike as a temporary, manageable cost of a necessary confrontation.
Ceasefire Talks as the Price-Relief Thesis
With military strikes paused and delegations converging on Doha, the path to lower gas prices now runs through diplomacy. James of New York articulated the logic directly: as the Iran conflict winds toward a resolution and a peace deal takes shape, prices should continue declining, even if progress is gradual. Norma Holm of Indiana framed the sacrifice in coalition terms — absorbing higher costs "for the team" — while expressing confidence that conditions were stabilizing.
Matt of Maryland, an Army veteran who said his drill sergeants were warning of possible Iran deployment as far back as 1985, offered the starkest long-range view: recurring gas-price volatility is the predictable result of leaving the underlying geopolitical problem unresolved. His assessment amounted to a supply-side argument in political clothing — the price signal will keep flashing until the source of uncertainty is removed.
Midterm Arithmetic
The affordability question carries measurable electoral weight with midterms approaching in November. Trump's low-price pitch, made before the Iran escalation, now depends on whether the Doha talks yield a durable ceasefire and whether the resulting price relief arrives quickly enough to shape voter perception. For now, his base appears willing to hold the line — attributing the shock to forces beyond the Oval Office and treating any decline from the late-May peak as confirmation that the strategy is working.
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