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Short Sellers Circle SpaceX but Keep Their Distance as Musk Factor Deters Bears

Around 40 million SpaceX shares are sold short — equal to roughly 5% to 7% of the shares publicly available to trade — according to an estimate from data firm S3 Partners. The figure captures a market that has found reasons to…

By Marcus Cole·June 23, 2026·二〇二六年六月二十三日·2 min read

HONG KONGJune 23, 2026

Around 40 million SpaceX shares are sold short — equal to roughly 5% to 7% of the shares publicly available to trade — according to an estimate from data firm S3 Partners. The figure captures a market that has found reasons to press against the aerospace and satellite company, yet one where a significant number of participants still hesitate to step in front of Elon Musk.

A Modest Position in a High-Profile Name

The 5% to 7% short interest rate, as estimated by S3 Partners, reflects cautious rather than aggressive bearish conviction. Short sellers have identified enough of a tradeable float to establish 40 million shares short, yet the broader short-selling community has largely held back. The word the source uses for the hesitant majority is telling: afraid — not skeptical, not disciplined, but afraid. That is a different kind of risk calculus than the one that governs most markets.

The Musk Deterrent

The headline dynamic here is less about the shorts that exist than about the shorts that don't. Musk's record of converting negative narratives into rallies across his ventures has established a reputational cost for bears that sits outside standard financial modelling. Betting against him is not simply a view on cash flows or competitive positioning; it carries the specific hazard of being right on fundamentals and still losing the trade.

What the Float Figure Actually Measures

SpaceX does not carry a listing on a major exchange, which means short interest data must be estimated rather than drawn from the standardized regulatory disclosures that apply to public companies. S3 Partners uses shares available in secondary markets as its denominator. That denominator matters: in a thin private secondary market, a position of 40 million shares can represent a meaningful share of available supply without reflecting the kind of deep, liquid short book that would exist in a comparable public name. The percentage figure is therefore as much a measure of float scarcity as of bearish conviction — and reading it without that context overstates how broadly the bear case has actually taken hold.

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Key takeaways

Frequently asked

How many SpaceX shares are sold short?

About 40 million SpaceX shares are sold short, equal to roughly 5% to 7% of the shares publicly available to trade, according to S3 Partners.

Why are short sellers hesitant to bet against SpaceX?

Many are afraid because Elon Musk has a record of converting negative narratives into rallies, creating a risk that bears can be correct on fundamentals yet still lose the trade.

Why must SpaceX's short interest be estimated rather than reported?

SpaceX is not listed on a major exchange, so it lacks the standardized regulatory disclosures of public companies, requiring data firms like S3 Partners to estimate short interest using shares available in secondary markets.

Does the 5% to 7% short interest figure mean the bear case is widespread?

Not necessarily, because in a thin private secondary market the percentage reflects float scarcity as much as bearish conviction, and reading it without that context overstates how broadly the bear case has taken hold.