Robinhood stock needs 18% earnings growth to hit record by 2029

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) closed at a record high of $152.46 on October 9, 2025, less than three weeks after joining the S&P 500. The stock has not traded at that level since, currently sitting near $112, which requires an approximate 36% gain to reach the previous peak. A forecast suggests the company can achieve this milestone before the end of 2028, provided earnings compound at an annual rate of about 18%.

This projection relies on specific financial metrics rather than broad investor enthusiasm. Shares currently trade at approximately 38 times the earnings analysts expect Robinhood to report for 2027. If this price-to-earnings ratio remains flat, the stock's price can only rise as fast as its underlying earnings. To hit the record price by late 2028, when investors would likely be pricing in 2029 performance, Robinhood would need to generate about $4 in earnings per share in 2029.

The company reported $2.05 per share in earnings for 2025. Reaching $4 per share over four years necessitates nearly doubling that figure, or maintaining roughly 18% yearly growth. The hurdle increases if the valuation multiple compresses. At a lower multiple of 30 times earnings, the record price would require about $5 in 2029 earnings per share, demanding growth closer to 25% annually.

Recent performance shows volatility in growth rates. Earnings per share rose from $1.56 in 2024 to $2.05 in 2025, a 31% increase. However, the 2024 figure included one-time tax benefits worth $0.47 per share; excluding those, earnings grew by about 88% in 2025. In the first half of 2026, earnings per share climbed 27% year over year to $1.00, though this included $0.14 per share in gains from taking a venture fund off the books. Without those gains, growth was around 9%.

The second quarter of 2026 indicated potential for accelerated growth. Transaction-based revenue increased 44% year over year, driven by $156 million from event contracts, Robinhood's prediction-market product. Total revenue rose 32% to $1.31 billion, more than double the first quarter's growth rate of 15%. Management also reduced its 2026 outlook for non-GAAP operating expenses and stock-based compensation to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion, representing an increase of about 18% to 22% from the previous year's $2.27 billion.

Operational data for August suggested a strong start to the third quarter, with stock trading volume up 68% and options contracts up 50% year over year. However, risks remain regarding customer capital flows and valuation. Net deposits were at a 14% annualized rate in August, half the pace of the second quarter. Crypto revenue fell 38% year over year in the second quarter, and net interest revenue grew just 9% due to lower short-term interest rates and softer securities lending revenue.

Furthermore, Robinhood's prediction markets face legal challenges linked to state gambling laws. The company's valuation of around 38 times expected earnings is roughly three times that of Charles Schwab. If Robinhood's earnings growth slows to single digits, the stock could lose its valuation premium even as absolute earnings continue to climb.