Moderna stock surges 600% on cancer vaccine data, joins Nasdaq-100

Moderna stock has surged more than 600% this year, outperforming major artificial intelligence names such as Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Sandisk. The biotech company recently entered the Nasdaq-100 index, a move that underscores its shift from a pandemic-era vaccine provider to a broader pharmaceutical player. This performance has prompted questions among investors about whether the stock is still a viable buy after such a steep rally.

The company's trajectory has been volatile. During the early days of the pandemic, Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine became a commercial blockbuster, generating over $18 billion in revenue at its peak in 2022. That success drove the stock up more than 2,000% in roughly 18 months. However, subsequent years brought significant headwinds as vaccine demand declined. The company also faced challenges with its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine gaining market share and saw its much-anticipated cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate fail in a phase 3 study.

Moderna has since pivoted its strategy to cut costs in line with reduced coronavirus vaccine revenue while winning approvals for new products, including a flu vaccine and updated coronavirus vaccines. A key driver of the recent stock performance is the company's expansion into oncology. Moderna is currently studying intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer vaccine, in 10 clinical studies. The most advanced of these is in phase 3.

In August, Moderna announced that intismeran autogene, when combined with Merck’s Keytruda, met its primary goals of recurrence-free survival and survival without disease spread in melanoma patients. The companies stated they would engage with regulators on filing submissions, suggesting a potential new product approval is approaching. This news accelerated the stock’s climb; Moderna had already gained about 100% prior to the announcement, but the rally intensified afterward.

The stock is currently trading at around $225, which is significantly higher than the average Wall Street 12-month price estimate of $122. While Moderna is transforming into a larger biotech capable of addressing a broad range of treatment areas, caution is advised. Given the massive increase this year, the recommendation is to watch the stock closely and wait for an opportunity to buy on a dip.