Midterm races threaten GOP streaks dating to the 1930s

Democrats are running competitive races in traditionally Republican territory this midterm cycle, putting long-standing Republican winning streaks at risk. The contests span the Senate, governorships and the House, with Cook Political Report rating several races as tossups or leaning toward a change in party control.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, is challenging incumbent Senator Roger Marshall. Hamilton has significantly outraised the Republican incumbent, and the two are neck-and-neck in polls. Cook rates the race a tossup. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill was reelected in 1932.

Texas presents another potential breakthrough. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by low single digits in polls. Cook rates this Senate race a tossup. The state last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988 with Lloyd Bentsen.

South Carolina offers a closer margin. Senator Darline Graham, who replaced her late brother Lindsey Graham, is leading Democrat Annie Andrews by a few percentage points. Andrews has raised substantial funds, while Graham has struggled as a political novice. Cook rates the race likely Republican. The state has gone Republican in every U.S. Senate election since Fritz Hollings was reelected in 1998.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson could become the first registered Democrat to win a Senate seat since 1988 if he defeats Senator Susan Collins. Independent Senator Angus King has caucused with Democrats since 2012.

Gubernatorial races also test historical barriers. In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is in a tight race with incumbent Greg Abbott, which Cook rates as leans Republican. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms is in a tossup race to become the first Democratic governor since 1998. In Alaska, Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins is in a race Cook rates as leans Democratic, seeking to be the first Democratic governor since 1998.

House races target districts with long Republican histories. In Nevada’s 2nd District, Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson challenges Republican Dave Flippo in a district Democrats have never won since its creation in 1983. Cook rates the race likely Republican. In Montana’s 1st District, Democrat Sam Forstag faces Republican Aaron Flint in a tossup race. Democrats have not won a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994.

Republicans also face competitive races where they have not won in decades. In Michigan, former Representative Mike Rogers is locked in a tight Senate race with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers would be the first Republican elected to the Senate from the state since the 1994 GOP wave. In Oregon, Republican Christine Drazan is running close against Democratic Governor Tina Kotek. Drazan would be the first Republican elected governor of the state since 1982.