Jim Jordan emerges as top GOP minority leader contender

House Republican lawmakers told Fox News Digital that Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio is the leading candidate to become the next House GOP minority leader if Democrats seize control of the chamber in November. Several members expect the party to lose its majority, triggering a significant leadership shakeup where Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana would likely step aside.

Jordan's name surfaced frequently in discussions among House Republicans, who spoke under the condition of anonymity to address internal conference matters. One lawmaker described Jordan as the "number one name" in talks for the minority leader position, noting that his high name recognition among the party base provides a distinct advantage. The Ohio Republican has spent much of August and October traveling across the country to campaign for fellow House Republicans, ranging from vulnerable moderates to conservative allies. This active campaigning contrasts with his 2023 bid for speaker, which faced fierce opposition from moderates. A second House Republican characterized Jordan's current standing as "Jim Jordan 2.0," stating that he has built support beyond the Freedom Caucus and is viewed as a "great citizen of the conference."

Despite this momentum, Jordan has not publicly pushed for a leadership role since 2023. He told Punchbowl News earlier this week that he remains "focused on winning" the House majority. However, a third House Republican noted that if Democrats win in a blue wave, many of Jordan's 2023 opponents may lose their seats. In that scenario, a minority leader would only need to win a majority of the remaining GOP conference, which would likely be more conservative. This member said they would "1,000%" back Jordan, arguing his chances would be much higher if the conference shrinks.

The path to minority leader is not clear-cut, with Majority Leader Steve Scalise expected to run for the job. Scalise has been a member of House GOP leadership since 2014 and is considered a strong candidate by some loyalists. One lawmaker described Scalise as the best negotiator who understands the administration's priorities, while questioning whether Jordan would be an effective speaker. The two men have a history of conflict following their competing bids for speaker after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's ouster. Scalise won a head-to-head vote among Republicans behind closed doors but failed to secure the necessary majority on the House floor.

Speaker Mike Johnson is also expected to step aside if Republicans lose. A fourth House Republican said it would not make sense for Johnson to demote himself from speaker to minority leader. Another member bluntly stated, "Johnson's done." Johnson himself dismissed talk of a leadership race in an interview with Fox News Digital last month, insisting that he is laser-focused on defying history and keeping the majority. He stated, "I really haven't given it a moment's thought because we're laser focused."

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota is expected to run for re-election regardless of the outcome, avoiding a direct collision with Jordan and Scalise. Multiple people told Fox News Digital that Emmer has privately indicated his intent to keep his position, a move described by one lawmaker as brilliant because it avoids forcing members to choose between him and Jordan.

In the event of a solid defeat, some lawmakers see other names emerging. Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger of Texas is rumored to be preparing for a potential leadership bid. One member said Pfluger is "very ambitious" but remains tactically quiet. Speculation exists that he could run for whip if Emmer steps aside or for the chairmanship of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Most House Republicans surveyed expect Democrats to win between 20 and 25 seats in the midterms. A third House Republican warned that any district less than R+6 is at risk, adding that there is a lot of panic being pushed across the country.