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The ten-year Treasury yield at 5.01% is doing what a deteriorating earnings picture could not: convincing one of Wall Street's most prominent bulls to lower his index number.
Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target from 8,400 to 7,900 on September 16, 2026, while pushing the original 8,400 level out to mid-next year. The revision is a valuation call, not a profits call.
Earnings, he argued, will be fantastic. The pressure is in the denominator.
When the risk-free rate rises, the present value of future corporate cash flows falls, and investors pay fewer dollars for the same dollar of earnings.
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