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US grocery slowdown enters new phase as basket sizes fall across every region, Bain finds

7/16/2026

American households are pulling back on grocery volumes at a scale that now covers every corner of the country.

New Bain & Company analysis of NielsenIQ data shows unit sales falling across all US regions as shoppers reduce basket sizes rather than simply trade between price tiers.

Against the backdrop of a deteriorating demand environment, the development has converted the grocery sector from a volume contest into a zero-sum competition for share.

A market where volume is no longer the driver The report, published from Boston on July 16, identifies this moment as a decisive new phase in a slowdown that has been building sector-wide.

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