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The gap between a correct long-run thesis and a profitable short-run position has rarely been starker.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, associated with "Situational Awareness," a document credited with calling the direction of artificial intelligence development, misjudged the near-term movement of AI-related stocks and funded those bets with borrowed money.
When the stocks moved against his positions, the financing structure made the outcome worse than the directional error alone would have produced.
The thesis versus the trade "Situational Awareness" is credited, per the source, with getting the future right. That means the long-horizon analysis of where AI was heading held up.
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