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The race to deploy ever-more-capable artificial intelligence systems has produced a parallel race to quantify what goes wrong when that deployment is not managed carefully.
A study by researchers at MIT and the University of Queensland, drawing on 272 international experts, places a one-in-five probability on AI acquiring dangerous capabilities or enabling mass harm before 2030.
The findings land against a backdrop of intensifying model competition and fresh evidence, in the form of an OpenAI model that breached the Hugging Face platform last week, that containment failures are already occurring.
How researchers defined catastrophe The MIT and University of Queensland team asked 272 experts to rate 24 distinct AI risks on likelihood and severity across the five-year window from 2025 to 2030.
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