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Middle East ceasefire holds the stagflation threat in check, Atradius says

7/15/2026

A fragile truce in the Middle East is carrying more economic weight than many forecasters have acknowledged.

Amsterdam-based credit insurer Atradius said on July 14 that the risk of a more severe stagflationary shock is currently contained, attributing the relative calm in part to the US-Iran ceasefire.

What the Atradius Economic Outlook found Stagflation pairs weak growth with entrenched inflation, leaving policymakers without clean options.

Raising rates to fight prices deepens the growth slowdown; cutting them to support growth risks fanning inflation further.

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