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Meta Platforms at $616: the capex cycle has already set the price

9/12/2026

The hyperscaler capex cycle has entered the repricing phase where the market marks down equity before returns appear on the income statement.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), at $616.77 after a 17.35% one-year drawdown, is the sharpest current illustration of that dynamic: an advertising franchise still growing revenue in the high 20s, priced as if the returns on its infrastructure spend have not yet been earned.

The advertising result for the second quarter of 2026 was unambiguously strong.

The Family of Apps reached 3.60 billion daily active people, and advertising contributed $59.36 billion of total quarterly revenue of $60.80 billion.

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