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The Strait of Hormuz has anchored geopolitical risk pricing in oil markets for decades, and the question of who controls its passage keeps returning to trading desks.
Analysis of the scenario in which Iran gains effective control and imposes transit tolls arrives at an unconventional conclusion: Gulf oil revenues would be redirected toward Tehran, but world oil prices would hold steady.
The US economic forecast, by that reading, holds. The toll mechanism and the price signal The analytical hinge is the difference between a revenue redistribution and a supply disruption.
Iranian transit tolls would extract payment from producers shipping crude through the strait, routing those receipts to Tehran rather than leaving them with Gulf states. The oil itself continues to flow.
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