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monetary policy setting the pace for rate markets worldwide, EY-Parthenon has concluded that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at their current levels through the end of the year, even after Friday's jobs report is absorbed.
Wall Street's consensus estimate for July payrolls sits at 83,000 additions. EY-Parthenon reads the underlying labor market as stable enough to leave the Fed unmoved.
Payrolls in focus, policy calculus unchanged The 83,000 figure Wall Street expects for July hiring is the week's central data point. EY-Parthenon's assessment, though, strips it of much of its policy significance.
The firm's conclusion is direct: the labor market is stable, and stability alone does not hand the Fed a reason to act. That framing sets a high threshold for a data surprise.
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