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Speculative positioning on the U.S.
dollar has climbed to its most bullish level in a decade, with the sustainability of that trade now resting on whether Wednesday's sharp jump in oil prices is the start of something or a one-session move.
Renewed Middle East tensions are driving fresh inflation concerns, and those concerns are reviving expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to keep policy tight longer than markets had hoped.
A crowded trade built on a conditional argument The dollar bet is explicitly crowded.
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